Desk : Pakistan’s wheat sector is facing a renewed and severe crisis, exposing structural weaknesses in agricultural planning, procurement systems, and food security management. The situation has left farmers, flour millers, and consumers grappling with uncertainty over supply and prices, according to reporting by Dawn.
Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz has directed authorities to take strict action against traders who fail to declare wheat stocks within a two-week deadline. The directive comes amid growing concerns over declining wheat output and the possibility of a sharp rise in flour prices in the coming months.
Estimates from Punjab’s Agriculture Department suggest average wheat yield stands at around 33 maunds per acre. However, analysts warn that national production may fall more than 20 percent short of annual demand, intensifying pressure on an already strained market.
The shortfall has emerged at a critical time, with global grain markets destabilized by the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war and continuing tensions in the Middle East. Domestically, weak government reserves and inconsistent procurement policies have further aggravated market volatility.
Economists argue that the crisis extends beyond allegations of hoarding, pointing instead to deeper policy failures and a lack of coherent state intervention in a market already reacting to anticipated shortages. Farmers, meanwhile, report that sharply rising input costs have made wheat cultivation increasingly unviable.
Pakistan Kissan Ittehad President Khalid Khokhar has criticized the government for intervening only after prices surge, while growers were previously compelled to sell wheat at unsustainably low rates. Rising costs of fertilizers, diesel, electricity, and labor have significantly eroded farm profitability.
The flour milling industry has also raised concerns, blaming regulatory inconsistency and delays in financing approvals for worsening supply-side pressures. Traders and investors are reportedly shifting wheat stocks into private storage, anticipating future shortages and price escalation.
Experts caution that aggressive procurement targets, movement restrictions, and stock raids have further undermined market confidence, tightening supply conditions. Many analysts now advocate for transparent private-sector participation, flexible pricing mechanisms, and targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations as more sustainable alternatives to heavy-handed administrative controls, as reported by Dawn.