The ever-increasing influence of Taliban in Afghanistan is what worries the world. Taliban’s control over the power of Afghanistan is also a cause of concern for India. Over the past two decades, India has participated in the rebuilding of the country—the Afghan parliament building, the Salma Dam in Herat province that generates electricity and irrigates 75,000 hectares of agricultural land and the 202-km-long electricity transmission line connecting Pul-e-Khumri in the north to Kabul are some of the big-ticket projects that India has executed.
India has invested $3 billion in several infrastructure and trade projects in Afghanistan. It has also undertaken over 400 projects across all 34 Afghanistan provinces. The trade between the two countries is now estimated at around $1 billion (in FY20), thanks to the duty-free benefit. India exports approximately $900 million worth of goods, mostly pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, computers and related materials, cement, and sugar, to Afghanistan. On the other hand, it imports items, mostly fresh and dried fruits, worth $500 million worth from there.
The biggest question is whether this investment will be completely stuck after the Taliban take over?
Afghanistan is vital to India’s strategic interests in the region. India provided developmental support to Afghanistan under the shield of US presence after it re-established ties after a five-year break from 1996 to 2001 during Taliban rule. India committed to assisting in rebuilding Afghanistan after the 2011 strategic partnership agreement.
Over the years India has tried to build its camaraderie with Afghanistan through investing in infrastructure, education sector, irrigation development and power generation projects. India also provides Afghanistan technical and technological support and assists in building capacity for infrastructure and institutional projects.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Afghanistan’s Parliament building in Kabul in 2015. It was built by India and cost $90 million.
The Afghan-India Friendship Dam project (42 MW Salma Dam project in Herat province) is symbolic of the ties between the two nations. The Zaranj-Delaram highway project (218 km long, $150 mn value) built near the Afghanistan-Iran border by the Border Roads Organisation is another project of strategic significance. It provides access to Iran’s Chahabar port.
Other projects include the restoration of the Stor Palace project along with the Aga Khan Development Network that works in the poorest parts of Asia and Africa. Power infra projects include the 220 kv DC transmission line from Baghlan to the north of Kabul.
India has also committed $1 million for the restoration of the 6th century Bala Hissar Fort by Aga Khan Trust.
Several clinics in border areas and hospitals were built and reconstructed by India. Moreover, medical missions from India have helped many disabled and handicapped Afghans. India has also donated 10 ambulances for public hospitals in five cities.
India also built Sulabh toilets in Kabul.
India has so far donated 400 buses (and 200 mini-buses), as well as 105 utility vehicles for municipalities. It also provided 285 military vehicles to the Afghan National Army, as per the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
India had sent 75,000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan during the pandemic (through Chabahar port).
In February 2021, Ghani and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during a virtual summit signed an agreement for the construction of the Shahtoot Dam near Kabul. The dam is expected to provide safe drinking water, water for irrigation, and electricity to its nearby areas.
As India has made a lot of effort and investments in Afghanistan, it is obvious that Taliban takeover would mean a reversal of nearly 20 years of rebuilding a relationship that goes back centuries. It is a matter of great concern.
Harsh V. Pant, the director of research at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi and a professor of international relations at King’s College London while throwing light on the issue said, “So far, India’s goal was to ensure Afghanistan remains stable and thus, supporting a democratic setup was the strategy. But now, the Taliban is the most important player in the Afghan political sphere for India to negotiate with. India would be ready to settle for some sort of a politically functional government in Kabul. But the Taliban is taking control of territory rapidly, so the chances of them coming to the negotiation table are slim.”
Prof. Pant also said, “India’s immediate priority is to protect its investments, many of which are more of confidence building measures.”
“But the priority is also to ensure that Afghanistan (under Taliban) doesn’t become an extension of Pakistan’s establishment,” he cautioned.